Spring Cruise 2013 - D-3, time to start firming up plans
In theory, just three days to go before we depart on our big cruise of 2013
I say in theory because the wind forecast for the weekend remains somewhat iffy. There has been an improvement in the forecast wind strength which, yesterday, all sources were suggesting would be F5 (17-21 knots) gusting F6 or even 7 (upwards of 30 knots) over the entire weekend
Now, the situation is more confused (helpful, not!).
Meteogroup (WeatherPro app on the mobile) which I tend to favour as a good source of info now has the basic windspeed for both Saturday and Sunday as F3 gusting F4 starting off in the NNW and veering round to SSE overnight. That would be pretty well as good as it gets
However, Windguru has F4 gusting F6 from the NNW backing late afternoon on Saturday to SSW and then overnight to SE with Sunday seeing top end of F4, creeping into F5 with gusts up to F7. Not so good
The extended marine forecast from the Met Office isn't too encouraging either predicting strong Northerly or North Westerly winds throughout the weekend. The Met tends to predict on the basis of peak wind though.
Looking at the raw(ish) GFS model data via netweather.tv we now see a deepening low pressure system developing over the low countries on Friday night which tracks along the South Coast during Saturday and Sunday getting deeper as it goes. This explains the wind shift (and the variance in the prediction because if that low tracks a little North of the coast, the wind will back, i.e. change in an anti-clockwise direction but if the low pressure tracks down the channel or the North coast of France instead, the wind will veer, i.e. change in a clockwise direction).
So where does that leave us? Well it leaves the skipper in increasing danger of further baldness (as if my hairline isn't receding fast enough already!) due to the head scratching going on trying to make plans on the basis of a shifting changing and somewhat borderline forecast.
To sea or not to sea ...
that is the question?
To date, I've tended to be fairly conservative as far as what conditions I'd set out in are concerned. I've generally worked on the basis of not setting out if the underlying wind strength is above F4 (max 16 knots) or the wind is gusting F6 or above (22 knots upwards)
Given the experience Rik and I gained last year, when we were most certainly out in conditions that exceeded those limits by some way at times, I am minded to raise the bar a little and go for it provided there is not a Strong Wind Warning on the Met Office Inshore Forecast or a Strong Winds Alert on WeatherPro.
We will also check the live sea state on Wavenet particularly, in the case of the run from Fambridge towards Ramsgate, the South Knock Wavenet site and the Sandettie light vessel and abort if it looks too rough (anything much over 1m mean wave height, e.g a "moderate" sea, would be off-putting and we'd definitely pull the plug on the trip if the wave height was up towards 2m. That's still "moderate" in sea state terminology since the sea doesn't officially become "rough" until the waves exceed 2.5m!
And so to plans, vague though they may be as yet ...
It fundamentally hinges on the forecast for Saturday as issued late Thursday evening / Friday morning.
Provided there are no strong wind warnings for Saturday and the forecast wind is F4 or less it'll be Plan A
If the forecast wind is F5 upwards for Saturday but there are no strong wind warnings for Sunday, it's Plan B
There is no Plan C! Not yet anyway because if neither Plan A nor Plan B work out, we'll have to have a think about Plan C depending on the forecast for next week and that's too far away to make any firm decisions about.
Plan A
Mark and I will drive down Friday morning straight after work (excepting if I'm too tired to drive in which case we'll drive down Friday afternoon) and meet Rik at the boat. Stores will be loaded, rig tension set up, everything stowed and made ready for sea before we retire to the pub for a meal, a beer and then an early night.
We'll depart Fambridge early on Saturday morning towards Ramsgate anticipating a 12 to 15 hour passage across the outer Thames estuary
Plan B
is basically the same as Plan A but 24 hours later. We'' meet up on Saturday and depart on Sunday
The non-existent Plan C
Unless the weather forecast for the weekend is totally pants, we'll meet up on Saturday come what may. If Ramsgate is off the radar for Sunday, we'll have to consider what we can do instead.
It might be feasible to sneak an inshore passage into the Medway and thence along the Swale with a view to heading coastwise around the North Foreland on Monday
Or we may have to revise out plans drastically and contemplate a wander round into the Blackwater for a change of scenery and play it by ear from there
The one thing I really do not want to do is to end up sitting at Fambridge for several days going nowhere!
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